Handicapping the Presidential race

Here is how I think it'll turn out...

1. Gore

2, Edwards

3. Clinton

4. Obama

5. Richardson

6. Kucinich

Well that is assuming Gore jumps in, which I think he will this autumn.

Todd Says:
Mon, 02/11/2008 - 5:28pm

Its down to Obama and Clinton.

If my caucus was any indication, all the momentum is heading Obama's way. That's my guess now, but hey what do I know.

Todd Says:
Wed, 12/26/2007 - 9:53pm

Well, barring something amazing, it looks like the field is set. No Gore or Clark or something to really shake up the Democratic primary. So merely a week until the Iowa caucuses, here is how and why I see it shaping up...

1. Edwards. I think there is a lot of people who can't stand Clinton, are not sure about Obama and will take Edwards as the lesser evil. He'll take a wide margin of the union support, rural support, and white male support. I wouldn't be shocked to see him pull a high 30% margin in Iowa and then run with it as Kerry did in '04.

2. Clinton. Pages could be devoted to why Clinton is so, so bad as a choice. I think she'll carry 25% of the votes overall, but I have a feeling she'll be a distant third in Iowa, won't fare any better in NH then we'll just freefall out of contention.

3. Obama. I really not sure about Obama. Part of me thinks he'll just shock the world, win 40% of Iowa and then cruise to the nomination. My gut thinks its not his time.

4. Three way tie with Dodd, Kucinich and Richardson. My hat is off to the courageous things Dodd has done of late in the Senate. Richardson has been vying for VP status and may get it. Kucinich could pull as much as 10% because of his leadership with the war and other progressive issues, but the media blackout we'll hurt his chances of doing much more than that.

Todd Says:
Thu, 07/05/2007 - 10:21pm

Since I posted this originally in June, I thought I would update my thoughts.I still think if Gore jumps in, he wins and if he doesn't then its Edwards. If I was going to rerank them I'd have Obama leapfrog Clinton and just for a hunch, Kucinich tying Richardson. Why? Kucinich is getting his base solidified while Richardson has been kind of quiet. Meanwhile, Obama is outraising Clinton and I still have yet to meet anyone that likes her. One thing I am sure of, iot's still a long ways to go.

Todd Says:
Tue, 08/14/2007 - 8:53am

So here is my August thoughts...

If Gore jumps in, he wins. I think Obama is peaking, Clinton's DLC roots are going to make it hard for her to get the grassroots, and Edwards hasn't really done anything to push him through. Richardson is fading fast. Kucinich will never make up for lack of money. And Dodd, Biden and Gravel are easily behind Kucinich.

I still have not met a Clinton supporter (though I hear the "I know someone who knows someone"). Frankly I have seen more enthusiasm in my state for Mitt Romney, so go figure. I really think the ultimate fight will be between Obama and Edwards. Clinton will probably still get 20% of the delegates and Kucinich might get enough to make this interesting. We have several months to go, but this could be decided in Denver. Then who knows. Who cuts the deal for the Clinton votes to put her as VP? Obama or Edwards. I have a feeling the GOP would drool over some combination of a Obama/Clinton ticket. I think America is reading for a minority candidate or a female candidate, but a combination of both?

But there is always the Gore factor.

Todd Says:
Sun, 10/07/2007 - 2:21pm

No one seems to be making any headway. Hillary seems to be pulling ahead moneywise, but will all that money really matter. I think her positions make her a very unattractive candidate for many Democrats, except for maybe the "Bill" factor. If I were one of the other candidates I would let it slip out that Bill Clinton is my first choice for Secretary of State or some position to neutralize him,

Handicapping the Presidential race

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